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The Microsoft Trojan Horse?

Thursday, November 29. 2007

Recently I've had Microsoft on my radar a lot, mostly because I'm wrapping up development of the Zend_InfoCard component for Zend Framework, but also because everyone has been talking about the recent release of the FastCGI support in IIS.

Wonderful, now I can also run PHP in a reasonable fashion on IIS -- that's good for everyone right?

I'm not so sure, to be honest. I mean let's face it there is competition out there for the web. A company like Microsoft would be simply neglectful if they didn't do everything in their power to sway, control, and if at all possible dominate this space right? Over the years when it came to public-facing web development PHP has been without a doubt been the leader, but why? I think it has a lot more to do with the fact that Microsoft didn't have a reasonable platform for their web development technologies then it had to do with PHP just being better..

Specifically:

OS: Obviously Microsoft Windows has a horrible track record for security on their Windows platform as a whole, making it a little unnerving of a choice for a business to decide to run their web business on. On the other hand, Linux was stable and secure and worked -- besides all the geeks liked it.

Web server: IIS 5 was just one screw up after the next for the most part as far as I can tell. The thing never seemed to work right, and when you compare that to something like Apache... well gosh, there just isn't much comparison. Apache was fast, stable, just worked and I think that lead to most of its dominance -- not the fact it was open source. Of course Apache probably wouldn't have gotten very far if Windows was the dominate OS.. but then again maybe Apache on Windows would have been more stable in that case..

Web Language: Well if IIS sucked, and Windows sucked, and Apache and Linux were good then of course a native Apache/Linux language like PHP is going to be the front runner. PHP itself might have beat out something like Perl, but that was probably because no one can read it more then it wasn't a viable technology..

... So here we are, 2007... PHP is still a major player in the web space and is starting to grow up. We have certifications, competition amongst ourselves, we even have the backing of companies like IBM.. In fact, a lot of people would attribute Microsoft's sudden interest in making PHP work well on IIS an acknowledgment that the PHP industry simply can't be ignored and I bet they're right.. There are even some who think PHP no longer needs to concern itself with other web technology competition (just look at the PHP community's reaction to Ruby on Rails) and that's dangerous.. Look at Netcraft:


Netcraft survey


Look at this graph from Feb 2006 on and you can clearly see that not only is Apache itself losing significant market share but it seems to be losing it almost entirely to IIS. That concerns me as a PHP developer, because over the years Microsoft's MO has been pretty much predictable:

Step 1: Come in low on the technology stack and dominate. For instance, control the OS (which they've managed to do a very good job of over the years.

Step 2: Push competition out of the market from the bottom up. We saw this during the browser wars and it lead to over 90% of the Internet population using Microsoft Internet Explorer -- if you control the base then you can simply build functionality of your competitors into your base product making them completely obsolete. In the very least, you'll capture huge amounts of market share even with an inferior product simply because its most easily accessible.

This is why these Netcraft figures bother me, and why I'm not so sure that FastCGI support in IIS is as great as a thing as it might sound at first glance.. If Microsoft continues to capture more and more market share, eventually they will dominate the web server space and at that point why would Microsoft care at all about PHP? It's much more profitable for them to simply make it easier to use C#, VB.NET, ASP.NET, whatever to do web pages and shove PHP out of the space just like Netscape got shoved out of the browser space in the 90s.

So I ask, is FastCGI support in IIS from (at least from business perspective) part of a larger Microsoft Trojan horse?

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From: http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2007/10/11/october_2007_web_server_survey.html

"""
Apache loses 2.8% share this month, partly through the strong growth at the major blogging systems, and partly due to 2.5 million domains on Apache expiring at trouble-free.net.
"""

Most big Netcraft swings are due to events that don't affect real-world situations. Admittedly, the next sentence is """Apache has around a 10% market share advantage over IIS now, which is the smallest gap between the two since IIS was launched in 1996.""" which is potential cause for concern, but I'd be more interested in seeing where it goes over 3 months.

Note also that "Google" is eating into the Apache market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

S
#1 Sean Coates (Homepage) on 2007-11-29 22:50 (Reply)
I read the article too and while I appreciate your reference to Wikipedia so I can educate myself on statistical misrepresentation, I still think my point is completely valid.

Mostly, because my point had very little to do with statistics at all.

If you had read the post, you would see that my point was there is a danger in making it too easy for people to use IIS because it gives Microsoft too much leverage if IIS gains dominance. That, and well, I don't see any long-term reason at all for Microsoft to do anything but get rid of PHP -- especially if they are given the opportunity.

The statistics just point out how fairly easily IIS could suddenly start claiming it is the dominate web server on the Internet -- which is a selling point Microsoft I am certain will not ignore.

I'm not trying to be an alarmist (although it's just dumb to ignore the correlation between IIS and Apache adoption going all the way back to Feb of 2000). I'm saying that if the web is indeed the new application platform, that makes the web server the new battleground for consumer application development. I just think it's naive to believe that Microsoft doesn't see this the same way and intend to try to do the same thing in that space that they so very successfully did in the desktop space.
#1.1 John Coggeshall (Homepage) on 2007-11-29 23:59 (Reply)
Now now.. I posted the wikipedia thing for other readers, not just you (-: I did read the article.

Sorry if that sounded offensive, it wasn't intended to be.

S
#2 Sean Coates (Homepage) on 2007-11-30 03:14 (Reply)
Hey John,

The Netcraft stats are too generic ... they cover all web servers, rather than just the ones used by customers who can afford to pay for web-based applications. Whilst a healthy hobbyist community is essential to PHP, at the end of the day it doesn't pay the bills.

At work, about 50% of our customers run Windows. It's a platform they've already chosen, and one we _have_ to be able to sell into. That's commercial reality. Decent FastCGI support on IIS is a real boon to us - not for the performance increase, but because it's actually the only way to tune IIS to cope with heavy workloads.

The normal pattern with these things is that others let Microsoft move into their territory. Look at Netscape as the classic example. They lost the browser war because of poor execution first and foremost. And today, on the platform level, we have a whole generation of sysadmins who have grown up without ever seeing a command-line. Windows Server 2003, with its all-so-familiar user interface, is a natural choice for them, whilst Linux with its command-line and competence-necessary approach is exactly the opposite :(

Anyways, I'd be more worried about the lack of activity at Apache. When was the last time that they did anything remotely sexy with the httpd server? :) They're creating the space for Microsoft to move into ...

Best regards,
Stu
#3 Stuart Herbert (Homepage) on 2007-11-30 05:14 (Reply)
I think a huge factor in PHP's success is also the fact that it's shared-hosting friendly. It doesn't let anyone keep anything in memory, which prevents all kinds of resource leaks. Just thinking about turning random non-programmers loose in mod_perl (or python) makes me shudder. Doubly so, since those modules allow you to hook your code directly into the Apache processing pipeline.

If PHP was vastly more complicated (say, twice as bad as Perl), then there would have been enough pressure to make Perl/Python as friendly to hosting companies as PHP. But since it wasn't, its own friendliness makes it a clear win.
#4 sapphirecat (Homepage) on 2007-11-30 11:29 (Reply)
My opinion is that there is nothing inherently wrong with competition in the web server market; it drives innovation by forcing developers (of various web servers -- Apache, IIS, lighttpd, tux, etc) to think of ways to differentiate their projects/products.

And that is A Good Thing, IMHO.

That said, I don't particularly think MS is out to dominate the world web server space. Instead, they are interested in 2 things:

a) Making money, and
b) Ensuring that PHP developers have a workable platform in the Windows environment.

Let's face it, Windows platforms dominate corporate intranets. If a company has been running Linux-based public web sites with PHP, and running Windows-based PHP application internally, it behooves MS to enhance the functionality and performance of PHP on IIS so that they remove any motivation to replace those internal IIS machines with Linux...

Just my 2 cents.

-jay
#5 Jay Pipes (Homepage) on 2007-11-30 13:22 (Reply)
I think this is a great discussion, let me try to respond to a few different points in the thread:

Sean: No worries

Stu:

It's a double edged sword for sure, on one hand you need to be able to sell to "Microsoft Shops" but on the other hand it also means Microsoft can sell to non-Microsoft shops. That's fair, but its dangerous if in the next 6-8 months we don't see an increase in PHP installations on Windows platforms (commercially specifically) because clearly Microsoft has seen an increase in IIS usage in the last 6-8 mos.

Which brings me a bit to Jay:

While I don't disagree that competition in the web server market is inherently wrong, it does concern me is going back to what Stu said -- we haven't seen anything particularly sexy from Apache lately and it shows.

I do disagree with you though when you say MS isn't interested in dominating the world web server space -- especially when you follow that up by saying they want to make money. I think ensuring PHP developers have a workable platform in the Windows environment is a short-term necessity to achieving that goal, but there will come a point where PHP as a technology offers nothing to help "sell" IIS and then I fear it would be simply replaced with a native Microsoft technology.

You have however hit on something I myself have thought a great deal about -- Windows *does* dominate corporate intranets, and by proxy ASP.NET is by far the winner in that space.. it's a very important point to me and here's why:

You claim that IIS support for PHP is to keep shops which run Windows intranets and Linux extranets from switching entirely to Linux... couldn't it just as reasonably be to get shops running Windows intranets and Linux extranets to switch entirely to Windows? To me that seems like a more financially sound goal for a company like Microsoft and, at least for now, it seems to be backed up by Netcraft's figures.

Perhaps I'm looking at the glass half-empty, but I think all of this discussion is really interesting and healthy for the industry regardless.
#6 John Coggeshall (Homepage) on 2007-11-30 19:17 (Reply)
Hey John,

Erm, doesn't that graph only show market share, rather than total installations? If so, that graph doesn't prove that we've seen an increase in actual MS installations - only a shift in overall market share. It also doesn't provide any context to the shift; for example, large ISPs moving their domain holding pages from Linux to Windows will have an effect on that.

I wouldn't get too worried just on that one graph :)

The Apache Foundation has disappeared up its own arse ... well, it's decided to be a major player in the Java world, which is the same difference :) Can't speak for other countries, but over here, the larger organisations are .NET *or* Java - not both. By positioning as a Java provider, Apache is naturally ruling itself out of Microsoft-orientated organisations. And, to be fair to them, there isn't really any innovation in the web server world atm anyways from any direction. Microsoft are playing catch-up, Apache's Linux-based competitors are offering higher performance in return for reduced functionality, whilst Apache itself (thanks largely to PHP) is stuck with mod_prefork and the inherent performance limitations it brings. What Apache could do is focus on being absolutely rock-solid, and on supporting mixed mpm models so that we can use mpm_prefork for mod_php but still hand off image downloads to mod_worker et al.

Microsoft already have a native replacement for PHP .. the DLR. Unless I've missed it, it's interesting that there's no IronPHP for the DLR. With Silverlight able to run DLR languages such as IronPython and IronRuby, there's a real possibility that Microsoft could own the entire web stack as never before, at least in commercial environments. I'm not sure what Microsoft could actually do with it once they achieve that. I reckon they'd have to make Silverlight the default rendering engine for IE, with HTML support treated much the same way that Flash is a plugin today, to have any chance of owning the web. With enough sexy websites supporting the rich rendering capabilities of Silverlight, maybe they could cause a shift away from HTML - maybe.

Thankfully, whatever misgivings people have about PHP syntax or extensibility, the one thing none of PHP's competitors really get is the share-nothing-scale-horizontal architecture that PHP excels at. Everyone else keeps going for the application server model, and as long as they do, the resulting applications will continue to be more complicated, more expensive to support, more expensive to scale, and more trouble.

Best regards,
Stu
#6.1 Stuart Herbert (Homepage) on 2007-11-30 20:16 (Reply)

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